Betting Lines
| Spread | STBK -13.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STBK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STBK +20 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | STBK -15.9 (+4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.0 (+15.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STBK -11.7 (+8.3) | 144.4 (+9.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STBK -13.1 (+6.9) | 143.0 (+11.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STBK -13.4 (+6.6) | 142.6 (+11.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STBK -12.9 (+7.1) | 143.1 (+10.9) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STBK | CCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-13 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 5-13 |
| Home | 13-4 | 5-7 |
| Away | 5-9 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 61.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#214) | -13.1 (#342) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#152) | -2.38 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#161) | -3.48 (#329) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#164) | 0.406 (#308) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STBK | CCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 38.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 44.6% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 16.5% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.1% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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