Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -23.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +26 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -18.5 (+7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.7 (+12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -18.9 (+7.1) | 139.9 (+6.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -15.4 (+10.6) | 138.1 (+7.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -15.3 (+10.7) | 138.7 (+7.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -15.7 (+10.3) | 139.9 (+6.1) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 10-4 |
| Home | 8-8 | 10-1 |
| Away | 2-10 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 79.1 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#69) | -7.3 (#293) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.56 (#67) | -1.90 (#304) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.17 (#66) | -2.73 (#313) |
| RPI | 0.613 (#34) | 0.374 (#337) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 42.6 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.2% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 76.4% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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