Betting Lines
| Spread | PORT -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PORT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PORT +1 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | PORT -8.7 (-7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.3 (+29.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PORT -6.0 (-5.0) | 133.9 (+21.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PORT -5.8 (-4.8) | 132.8 (+22.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PORT -5.1 (-4.1) | 132.9 (+22.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PORT -5.9 (-4.9) | 133.1 (+21.9) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PORT | CP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 7-21 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 2-12 |
| Home | 11-4 | 4-7 |
| Away | 6-9 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 60.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 67.9 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#230) | -7.0 (#291) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#231) | -1.83 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.05 (#243) | -1.67 (#268) |
| RPI | 0.428 (#281) | 0.383 (#331) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PORT | CP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.9% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 27.9% |
Game Analysis
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