Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONM +4 | 108 | Lost |
| Massey | MONM -8.5 (+4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.8 (-24.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONM -3.9 (-0.1) | 131.3 (-23.3) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONM -5.6 (+1.6) | 134.4 (-26.4) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONM -6.3 (+2.3) | 134.4 (-26.4) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONM -5.9 (+1.9) | 133.6 (-25.6) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 11-9 |
| Home | 9-11 | 9-5 |
| Away | 2-9 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.5 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 67.3 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#251) | 8.9 (#49) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.03 (#258) | 2.31 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.50 (#263) | 3.12 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#253) | 0.609 (#39) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 38.6% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 22.2% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 44.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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