Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -23.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXSO +15 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | FLA -22.6 (-37.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.4 (-8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -17.8 (-32.8) | 135.3 (-12.3) | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -18.7 (-33.7) | 137.7 (-14.7) | 90% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -20.6 (-35.6) | 137.0 (-14.0) | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -21.3 (-36.3) | 136.7 (-13.7) | 89% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 13-5 |
| Home | 13-5 | 7-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 8-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 66.1 |
| Massey | 13.5 (#21) | -4.0 (#247) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.82 (#22) | -1.92 (#311) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.10 (#22) | -2.70 (#307) |
| RPI | 0.621 (#32) | 0.461 (#236) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 37.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 25.2% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 14.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 41.0% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 36.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.2% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.7% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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