Betting Lines
| Spread | TAR -16.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.0 Under |
| Money | TAR -1309 CHSO +729 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CHSO +2 | 116 | Lost |
| Massey | TAR -22.7 (-24.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.1 (-15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TAR -14.7 (-16.7) | 129.5 (-13.5) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TAR -14.6 (-16.6) | 133.5 (-17.5) | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -16.7 (-18.7) | 134.2 (-18.2) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -15.8 (-17.8) | 129.4 (-13.4) | 85% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#177) | -17.4 (#356) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.74 (#301) | -2.91 (#337) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.93 (#279) | -4.25 (#337) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#265) | 0.364 (#334) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.8% | 35.5% |
| 3PT% | 25.7% | 23.6% |
| REB / G | 26.8 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.65 | 0.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.8% | 40.7% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 15.5% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 58.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.6% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.7% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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