Betting Lines
| Spread | VMI -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VMI +6 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | VMI -17.4 (+11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.6 (-6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VMI -12.6 (+6.6) | 145.3 (-5.3) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VMI -11.1 (+5.1) | 141.9 (-1.9) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VMI -11.5 (+5.5) | 140.8 (-0.8) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VMI -12.4 (+6.4) | 142.2 (-2.2) | 13% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CARK | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-3 |
| Massey | -17.9 (#355) | -0.5 (#179) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.69 (#298) | -1.41 (#286) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.11 (#320) | -1.65 (#265) |
| RPI | 0.382 (#310) | 0.264 (#354) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CARK | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.9% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 27.5% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.59 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.5% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 25.6% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 22.8% | 22.1% |
| FT Rate | 12.6% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 43.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 58.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.