Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAW +8 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | UIC -2.3 (+10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.8 (+24.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -0.4 (+7.6) | 140.6 (+27.4) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UIC -1.9 (+9.9) | 141.6 (+26.4) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UIC -2.1 (+10.1) | 141.8 (+26.2) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UIC -1.2 (+9.2) | 142.2 (+25.8) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-11 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 10-5 | 9-10 |
| Home | 10-4 | 6-6 |
| Away | 5-5 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.0 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.5 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#200) | 0.6 (#157) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.73 (#305) | -0.20 (#197) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.88 (#275) | -0.72 (#215) |
| RPI | 0.326 (#340) | 0.432 (#259) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 26.1% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 21.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 7.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.5% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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