Betting Lines
| Spread | NOLA -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NOLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRES +2 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | NOLA -5.9 (-7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.1 (+0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NOLA -1.6 (-3.6) | 137.6 (-3.6) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NOLA -3.1 (-5.1) | 137.0 (-3.0) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NOLA -3.2 (-5.2) | 137.5 (-3.5) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NOLA -2.2 (-4.2) | 140.2 (-6.2) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NOLA | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#254) | -3.0 (#231) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.00 (#319) | 0.99 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.98 (#315) | 1.63 (#96) |
| RPI | 0.397 (#301) | 0.541 (#127) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NOLA | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 34.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 20.3% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 41.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 16.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 38.2% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 35.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 79.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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