Betting Lines
| Spread | USD -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | USD -135 USA +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +1 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | USA -2.7 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.8 (+7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -0.9 (-0.1) | 130.3 (+4.7) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -0.3 (-0.7) | 132.6 (+2.4) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USD -0.1 (-1.1) | 131.5 (+3.5) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USD -0.4 (-1.4) | 133.8 (+1.2) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USD | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 9-7 |
| Home | 8-6 | 15-3 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.9 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 65.7 |
| Massey | 4.0 (#102) | 6.7 (#62) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#140) | -0.44 (#218) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.79 (#91) | -0.54 (#206) |
| RPI | 0.467 (#216) | 0.575 (#91) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USD | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 47.5% | 24.4% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 23.4% |
| ORB% | 22.4% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 16.8% | 15.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 22.9% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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