Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +16 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | MIA -10.1 (-26.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.1 (-6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -5.1 (-21.1) | 140.4 (-4.4) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -6.9 (-22.9) | 141.5 (-5.5) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -7.1 (-23.1) | 143.2 (-7.2) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -7.3 (-23.3) | 140.7 (-4.7) | 79% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-11 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 14-4 |
| Home | 10-5 | 13-4 |
| Away | 10-2 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 61.2 |
| Massey | 1.8 (#145) | -8.3 (#314) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#151) | -2.24 (#329) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#183) | -2.87 (#312) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#160) | 0.315 (#344) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 22.8% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 38.7% | 29.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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