Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | LUC +105 AUB -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +9 | 115 | Lost |
| Massey | LUC -5.9 (-14.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.7 (-48.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -2.6 (-11.6) | 151.6 (-36.6) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -3.4 (-12.4) | 154.7 (-39.7) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -2.3 (-11.3) | 155.1 (-40.1) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -2.2 (-11.2) | 156.3 (-41.3) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 28-6 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 15-3 |
| Home | 12-2 | 16-0 |
| Away | 8-3 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 78.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.9 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 16.0 (#10) | 10.1 (#39) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#139) | 1.10 (#99) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.98 (#132) | 1.49 (#102) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#116) | 0.579 (#84) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.7% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 43.5% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.83 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.5% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.5% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 77.5% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.