Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +8 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | BAY -13.9 (+5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 117.6 (+12.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -9.8 (+1.8) | 128.0 (+2.0) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -8.6 (+0.6) | 124.8 (+5.2) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -8.5 (+0.5) | 124.6 (+5.4) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -10.8 (+2.8) | 130.5 (-0.5) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VCU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-10 | 27-7 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 14-4 |
| Home | 12-4 | 15-2 |
| Away | 9-3 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.1 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.4 | 64.1 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#132) | 16.3 (#9) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.21 (#90) | 1.50 (#68) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.69 (#51) | 2.44 (#61) |
| RPI | 0.654 (#23) | 0.586 (#78) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VCU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 50.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 42.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 14.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 1.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.4% | 56.8% |
| TOV% | 25.8% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 23.7% | 39.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 12.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 35.8% | 43.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.7% | 30.5% |
| DRB% | 63.5% | 79.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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