Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Over |
| Money | ND -180 TA&M +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TA&M +6 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | TA&M -6.3 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.4 (+13.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TA&M -3.8 (-2.2) | 127.7 (+12.3) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TA&M -3.7 (-2.3) | 130.9 (+9.1) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TA&M -4.5 (-1.5) | 131.6 (+8.4) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TA&M -3.6 (-2.4) | 129.3 (+10.7) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 27-13 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-1 | 16-4 |
| Away | 7-5 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 2-5 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 66.4 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#184) | 5.5 (#80) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#216) | 1.15 (#97) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#207) | 1.11 (#131) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#158) | 0.583 (#80) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 43.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 27.1% |
| DRB% | 82.5% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.6% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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