Betting Lines
| Spread | TCU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TCU +9 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | TCU -10.9 (+1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.1 (+2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TCU -8.1 (-0.9) | 134.7 (+2.3) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TCU -6.9 (-2.1) | 136.2 (+0.8) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TCU -6.8 (-2.2) | 137.3 (-0.3) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TCU -8.7 (-0.3) | 137.8 (-0.8) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 1-15 | 8-10 |
| Home | 7-9 | 12-4 |
| Away | 0-13 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L7 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.8 | 64.9 |
| Massey | -10.5 (#336) | 0.4 (#162) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.22 (#201) | 0.38 (#148) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#187) | 0.51 (#147) |
| RPI | 0.451 (#235) | 0.538 (#131) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 42.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 15.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 24.4% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 37.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 24.0% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 15.0% |
Game Analysis
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