Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -24.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +28 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | UCSB -23.6 (+4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.5 (+1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -21.0 (+7.0) | 144.3 (-0.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -20.8 (+7.2) | 145.0 (-1.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -24.1 (+3.9) | 144.9 (-0.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -22.9 (+5.1) | 143.8 (+0.2) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-11 | 7-24 |
| Conference | 8-5 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-3 | 5-7 |
| Away | 5-7 | 2-17 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 64.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 79.3 |
| Massey | 9.9 (#41) | -6.7 (#293) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#154) | -1.03 (#257) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#143) | -1.46 (#252) |
| RPI | 0.598 (#67) | 0.505 (#180) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 36.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 26.0% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 28.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 43.2% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 37.1% | 20.4% |
| FT Rate | 35.5% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.3% | 61.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 64.6% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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