Betting Lines
| Spread | MINN -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | MINN -1100 JAX +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MINN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MINN +11 | 99 | Won |
| Massey | MINN -15.7 (-4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.7 (-28.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MINN -14.1 (-3.1) | 131.3 (-32.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MINN -14.2 (-3.2) | 134.2 (-35.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MINN -16.1 (-5.1) | 133.6 (-34.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MINN -15.2 (-4.2) | 133.2 (-34.2) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MINN | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 1-1 |
| Massey | 9.7 (#43) | 1.0 (#152) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.24 (#9) | 0.12 (#170) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.87 (#10) | 0.15 (#175) |
| RPI | 0.821 (#3) | 0.506 (#177) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MINN | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 5.2 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 29.8% |
| ORB% | 15.2% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.4% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 81.0% | 78.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.3% | 13.8% |
Game Analysis
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