Betting Lines
| Spread | SLU -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | SLU -180 SFA +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SLU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SLU +11 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | SLU -5.3 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.0 (-4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SLU -6.2 (+4.8) | 145.8 (+1.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SLU -4.5 (+6.5) | 147.3 (-0.3) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SLU -4.3 (+6.7) | 150.7 (-3.7) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SLU -4.4 (+6.6) | 152.0 (-5.0) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SLU | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 14-4 |
| Home | 14-5 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-6 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#57) | 1.9 (#143) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#132) | 0.22 (#163) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#142) | -0.80 (#220) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#152) | 0.645 (#30) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SLU | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 41.4 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 15.2 | 15.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 40.0% | 38.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 55.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.5% | 25.6% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 34.0% |
Game Analysis
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