Betting Lines
| Spread | CSUF -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUF +17 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | NAU -0.4 (-17.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.3 (-8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSUF -1.7 (-15.3) | 138.2 (-9.2) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAU -2.1 (-19.1) | 140.9 (-11.9) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NAU -1.4 (-18.4) | 140.7 (-11.7) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAU -0.4 (-17.4) | 140.2 (-11.2) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 11-4 |
| Home | 5-10 | 11-2 |
| Away | 3-11 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 66.4 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#242) | 3.2 (#115) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#144) | 1.08 (#102) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#138) | 1.78 (#92) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#181) | 0.508 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 26.4% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 22.5% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 35.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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