Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Over |
| Money | TOL -320 CCU +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +9 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -3.6 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (+6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -3.9 (+5.1) | 141.7 (+7.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -2.4 (+6.6) | 141.3 (+7.7) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -2.5 (+6.5) | 142.0 (+7.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -4.2 (+4.8) | 140.8 (+8.2) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 8-8 |
| Home | 13-2 | 13-7 |
| Away | 9-5 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 66.4 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#139) | -1.6 (#198) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.34 (#28) | 0.02 (#176) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.60 (#55) | -0.59 (#210) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#81) | 0.434 (#257) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 36.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 20.6% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 43.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 39.3% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 14.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.4% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 80.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.7% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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