Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +1 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | FSU -11.7 (-10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.4 (+31.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -12.4 (-11.4) | 131.7 (+29.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -9.9 (-8.9) | 135.7 (+25.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -10.6 (-9.6) | 136.3 (+24.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -10.5 (-9.5) | 134.2 (+26.8) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | BU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-8 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 11.2 (#30) | 6.5 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#50) | 0.84 (#119) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.87 (#45) | 1.53 (#101) |
| RPI | 0.657 (#21) | 0.487 (#199) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | BU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 22.9% |
| ORB% | 37.7% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.4% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 27.1% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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