Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -12.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +6 | 110 | Won |
| Massey | USF -11.6 (-5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 117.7 (-7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -9.0 (-3.0) | 128.3 (-18.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -7.0 (-1.0) | 127.5 (-17.5) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -6.8 (-0.8) | 129.5 (-19.5) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -8.6 (-2.6) | 128.4 (-18.4) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | HAMP |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-4 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 0-3 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#251) | -8.6 (#318) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.63 (#295) | -1.52 (#290) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.48 (#301) | -2.37 (#296) |
| RPI | 0.389 (#306) | 0.357 (#328) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | HAMP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.1% | 35.4% |
| 3PT% | 25.0% | 26.5% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 25.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 5.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.7% | 40.9% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 15.7% |
| FT Rate | 16.1% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.7% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.0% | 35.5% |
Game Analysis
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