Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | UNCW -130 USM +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +14 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCW -16.5 (-30.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.2 (+22.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -10.3 (-24.3) | 134.7 (+11.3) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -10.8 (-24.8) | 130.3 (+15.7) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -11.5 (-25.5) | 128.9 (+17.1) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -11.0 (-25.0) | 131.1 (+14.9) | 82% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 6-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#161) | -16.1 (#353) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.47 (#220) | -2.19 (#328) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.08 (#233) | -3.40 (#330) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#226) | 0.306 (#348) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.1% | 38.4% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 21.7% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.1% | 42.2% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 23.3% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 20.9% |
| FT Rate | 16.9% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.0% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 22.6% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 64.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.