Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -9.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | ISU +375 XAV -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ISU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +12 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -6.5 (+18.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.1 (+28.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -6.3 (+18.3) | 135.0 (+17.0) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -3.8 (+15.8) | 131.0 (+21.0) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -3.6 (+15.6) | 130.8 (+21.2) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -3.2 (+15.2) | 135.5 (+16.5) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ISU | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-11 |
| Home | 14-5 | 16-5 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | W5 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.5 | 69.2 |
| Massey | 2.5 (#131) | 9.0 (#46) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#126) | 2.92 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#134) | 4.40 (#15) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#208) | 0.825 (#2) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ISU | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 45.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 37.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.8% | 39.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.2% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 77.7% | 76.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 16.5% |
Game Analysis
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