Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | OSU +120 FLA -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +3 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | FLA -4.7 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.1 (-8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -2.4 (-0.6) | 140.3 (-1.3) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -2.7 (-0.3) | 142.7 (-3.7) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -2.3 (-0.7) | 142.7 (-3.7) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -2.2 (-0.8) | 141.3 (-2.3) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OSU | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 13-3 | 13-5 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 7.0 (#59) | 11.6 (#27) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.70 (#21) | 2.19 (#33) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.10 (#20) | 3.76 (#24) |
| RPI | 0.655 (#22) | 0.613 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OSU | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 39.1% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 41.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 22.7% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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