Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | VT +140 MEM -160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +8 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | VT -1.5 (-9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.1 (-14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -1.1 (-9.1) | 140.6 (-10.6) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -2.8 (-10.8) | 141.3 (-11.3) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VT -2.1 (-10.1) | 141.3 (-11.3) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -4.3 (-12.3) | 140.0 (-10.0) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-4 | 13-2 |
| Away | 7-6 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 15.9 (#11) | 14.4 (#16) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.19 (#1) | 1.47 (#71) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 7.44 (#1) | 2.09 (#78) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#112) | 0.625 (#42) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.5% | 52.6% |
| 3PT% | 42.5% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 42.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.4% | 59.2% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 27.2% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 41.1% |
| FT Rate | 16.0% | 32.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 38.0% | 37.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 25.4% |
| DRB% | 77.4% | 63.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.0% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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