Betting Lines
| Spread | TEX -22.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEX +24 | 112 | Won |
| Massey | TEX -24.4 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.6 (-25.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TEX -24.3 (-0.3) | 135.1 (-23.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TEX -18.7 (+5.3) | 140.6 (-28.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TEX -19.3 (+4.7) | 141.2 (-29.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TEX -23.0 (+1.0) | 135.1 (-23.1) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEX | CBU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 7-11 |
| Home | 16-3 | 14-5 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.6 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 15.2 (#13) | -2.1 (#213) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#75) | 1.68 (#59) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.43 (#62) | 2.11 (#77) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#82) | 0.557 (#105) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEX | CBU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.6% | 52.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 41.3% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 60.0% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 27.2% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 14.0% |
Game Analysis
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