Betting Lines
| O/U | 146.0 Under |
| Money | UNCA +105 TNTC -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +6 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | TNTC -12.3 (+18.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.2 (-29.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNTC -6.1 (+12.1) | 142.9 (-26.9) | 28% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNTC -5.4 (+11.4) | 132.5 (-16.5) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNTC -7.7 (+13.7) | 137.7 (-21.7) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TNTC -6.5 (+12.5) | 143.9 (-27.9) | 22% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Massey | -8.9 (#326) | 3.4 (#107) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.52 (#232) | -0.45 (#225) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#232) | -0.55 (#217) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#171) | 0.542 (#133) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.4% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 26.0 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 15.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.59 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.6% | 44.4% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 41.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 13.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.8% | 60.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.5% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 49.3% | 62.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 13.6% |
Game Analysis
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