Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -9.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +2 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | UNCG -10.2 (-8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 118.7 (-0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -9.3 (-7.3) | 129.0 (-11.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -7.0 (-5.0) | 129.3 (-11.3) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -6.8 (-4.8) | 126.9 (-8.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -5.3 (-3.3) | 128.8 (-10.8) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | GB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 5-25 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 4-16 |
| Home | 9-5 | 4-9 |
| Away | 7-6 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.6 | 61.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.1 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#242) | -13.1 (#347) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.83 (#29) | -2.37 (#339) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.03 (#52) | -3.39 (#335) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#242) | 0.229 (#339) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | GB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 35.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 27.9% |
| REB / G | 48.7 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.7 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.3% | 41.0% |
| TOV% | 27.1% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 36.6% | 21.1% |
| FT Rate | 15.1% | 12.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 36.4% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 77.8% | 61.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 30.8% |
Game Analysis
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