Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +8 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | USU -0.7 (+7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.3 (+15.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -1.6 (+6.4) | 146.5 (+19.5) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -0.3 (+7.7) | 146.2 (+19.8) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -0.8 (+7.2) | 149.8 (+16.2) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -0.7 (+7.3) | 150.1 (+15.9) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 12-16 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-5 |
| Home | 9-7 | 6-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.0 | 75.5 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#183) | -1.1 (#203) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#167) | 0.64 (#123) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#137) | 0.69 (#140) |
| RPI | 0.708 (#44) | 0.465 (#226) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 41.4% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 16.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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