Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NMSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NMSU +11 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | DAV -7.6 (+18.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.2 (+5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAV -4.0 (+15.0) | 137.4 (+1.6) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DAV -3.4 (+14.4) | 137.5 (+1.5) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAV -3.3 (+14.3) | 135.6 (+3.4) | 34% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NMSU | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 27-7 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 15-3 |
| Home | 13-2 | 13-1 |
| Away | 10-3 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 74.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.9 | 66.1 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#177) | 7.5 (#44) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#74) | 0.58 (#135) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.71 (#69) | 1.18 (#97) |
| RPI | 1.000 (#1) | 0.667 (#58) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NMSU | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 51.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 51.4% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 60.1% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 21.8% |
| FT Rate | 31.1% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.2% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.3% | 23.1% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 30.5% |
Game Analysis
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