Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -16.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +36 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -16.6 (+19.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.4 (-0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -13.0 (+23.0) | 133.7 (-7.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -14.8 (+21.2) | 136.0 (-10.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -15.8 (+20.2) | 134.0 (-8.0) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | MILW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-14 |
| Home | 13-5 | 6-10 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 64.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 71.4 |
| Massey | 6.3 (#65) | -0.4 (#185) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.10 (#72) | -0.52 (#234) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.76 (#67) | -0.52 (#214) |
| RPI | 0.979 (#4) | 0.500 (#171) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | MILW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 43.5 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 17.5 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 42.7% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.2% | 40.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.2% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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