Betting Lines
| Spread | OSU -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +6 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -5.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.5 (-1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -4.7 (+1.3) | 138.6 (-2.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -4.1 (+1.9) | 139.2 (-3.2) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -5.4 (+0.6) | 138.4 (-2.4) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | OSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 8-11 | 12-8 |
| Home | 16-5 | 13-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 3-0 |
| Streak | W5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.2 | 67.7 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#192) | 3.8 (#98) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.76 (#102) | 0.90 (#95) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#118) | 1.01 (#110) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#171) | 0.458 (#232) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | OSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.0% | 49.4% |
| 3PT% | 25.0% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 43.5 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 15.5 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.9% | 56.7% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 39.7% | 36.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.4% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 81.2% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 15.4% |
Game Analysis
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