Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -16.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +9 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -12.5 (-3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.8 (-6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -11.7 (-2.7) | 142.2 (-5.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -13.9 (-4.9) | 142.1 (-5.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -13.2 (-4.2) | 139.2 (-2.2) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | BELL |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 4-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 0-2 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#148) | -1.5 (#218) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.63 (#126) | -0.38 (#214) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#134) | -0.42 (#208) |
| RPI | 0.417 (#267) | 0.573 (#114) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | BELL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 27.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 16.2% | 15.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 61.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 77.6% | 60.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.5% | 34.5% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.