Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +27 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -19.3 (+7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.6 (+22.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -15.9 (+11.1) | 133.6 (+21.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -16.5 (+10.5) | 135.6 (+19.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -18.3 (+8.7) | 135.2 (+19.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -18.5 (+8.5) | 133.8 (+21.2) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | PV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-8 | 8-19 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-2 | 5-4 |
| Away | 7-5 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.0 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#122) | -7.1 (#307) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#145) | -1.73 (#321) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#144) | -2.35 (#316) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#229) | 0.479 (#220) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | PV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 38.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 28.3% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 28.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 43.6% |
| TOV% | 22.5% | 25.3% |
| ORB% | 41.3% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.3% | 58.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.2% | 25.8% |
| DRB% | 80.6% | 57.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 31.7% |
Game Analysis
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