Betting Lines
| Spread | TXSO -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AF +4 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | AF -11.4 (-7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.5 (-4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AF -1.3 (+2.7) | 129.4 (-11.4) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AF -5.4 (-1.4) | 130.7 (-12.7) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AF -7.0 (-3.0) | 127.6 (-9.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AF -5.9 (-1.9) | 128.8 (-10.8) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-18 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 4-13 | 13-5 |
| Home | 7-6 | 7-2 |
| Away | 2-11 | 8-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 59.0 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 66.1 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#191) | -2.1 (#223) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.50 (#42) | -1.41 (#308) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.53 (#77) | -2.03 (#311) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#116) | 0.389 (#278) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 25.5% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 4.0 | 16.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.58 | 0.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 43.6% |
| TOV% | 27.9% | 25.3% |
| ORB% | 15.7% | 44.6% |
| FT Rate | 8.5% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.3% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 64.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.4% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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