Betting Lines
| Spread | STAN -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STAN +14 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | STAN -19.6 (-5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.2 (+0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STAN -15.3 (-1.3) | 133.7 (+0.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STAN -12.1 (+1.9) | 137.8 (-3.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -13.9 (+0.1) | 136.5 (-2.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STAN -10.7 (+3.3) | 136.0 (-2.0) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STAN | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 6-12 |
| Home | 10-5 | 8-8 |
| Away | 3-9 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.4 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#190) | -10.2 (#334) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#143) | -3.40 (#356) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#141) | -4.94 (#355) |
| RPI | 0.667 (#58) | 0.250 (#329) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STAN | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 28.3% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 5.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 40.9% | 14.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 13.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.1% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 79.8% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.8% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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