Betting Lines
| Spread | OKST -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OKST +6 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | OKST -8.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (-0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OKST -6.3 (+0.3) | 139.9 (+2.1) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OKST -5.5 (-0.5) | 142.4 (-0.4) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OKST -5.5 (-0.5) | 144.0 (-2.0) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OKST -4.5 (-1.5) | 143.3 (-1.3) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | OKST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 15-15 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 8-10 |
| Home | 7-10 | 10-6 |
| Away | 3-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L5 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 65.7 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#212) | 7.1 (#48) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.08 (#77) | 0.55 (#140) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.19 (#96) | 1.64 (#70) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#167) | 0.448 (#244) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | OKST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 48.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 12.2% | 23.9% |
| ORB% | 36.1% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 41.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 30.6% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.6% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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