Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +13 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -23.9 (-10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.7 (+2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -19.4 (-6.4) | 139.3 (+1.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -25.0 (-12.0) | 140.2 (+0.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -23.8 (-10.8) | 139.0 (+2.0) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | DETM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-7 |
| Home | 14-3 | 9-1 |
| Away | 1-10 | 5-15 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 11.2 (#18) | -2.8 (#238) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#136) | -0.63 (#241) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#128) | -0.87 (#243) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#248) | 0.500 (#171) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | DETM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.4% | 36.9% |
| 3PT% | 46.3% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 45.0 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.5% | 43.4% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 11.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 37.5% | 58.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 11.8% |
| DRB% | 79.5% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 9.5% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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