Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIP +19 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | DAY -3.8 (-22.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.0 (+2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -2.4 (-21.4) | 138.5 (-1.5) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -1.8 (-20.8) | 138.3 (-1.3) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -3.4 (-22.4) | 136.5 (+0.5) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 4-1 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#257) | 2.7 (#119) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.56 (#314) | 0.50 (#147) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.62 (#294) | 0.49 (#153) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#160) | 0.497 (#206) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 51.0% |
| 3PT% | 24.3% | 44.6% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 4.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 59.3% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 22.7% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 14.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.9% | 40.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.7% | 44.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 12.6% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 7.6% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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