Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -10.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +5 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | MD -0.6 (-5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.1 (-3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -3.3 (-8.3) | 141.5 (-4.5) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -1.7 (-6.7) | 141.7 (-4.7) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MD -2.6 (-7.6) | 140.3 (-3.3) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -3.7 (-8.7) | 141.5 (-4.5) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 7-9 |
| Home | 10-8 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 68.5 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#162) | 9.9 (#25) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.35 (#55) | 1.28 (#59) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.87 (#59) | 1.80 (#65) |
| RPI | 0.778 (#20) | 0.771 (#22) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 53.4% |
| 3PT% | 23.4% | 40.5% |
| REB / G | 46.3 | 41.7 |
| OREB / G | 14.7 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 63.2% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 36.7% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 42.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 80.5% | 82.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.3% | 7.0% |
Game Analysis
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