Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +13 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -24.0 (-11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.8 (+40.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -18.5 (-5.5) | 140.7 (+32.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -21.1 (-8.1) | 137.8 (+35.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -18.1 (-5.1) | 138.8 (+34.2) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 14-4 |
| Home | 17-1 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-4 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#140) | -12.6 (#345) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#119) | -3.00 (#353) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.91 (#120) | -4.25 (#352) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#248) | 0.125 (#352) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 33.0% |
| 3PT% | 39.6% | 20.5% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 0.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 37.4% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 17.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 36.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.7% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.3% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 85.0% | 83.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 9.6% | 11.7% |
Game Analysis
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