Betting Lines
| Spread | UCLA -26.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCLA +35 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | UCLA -22.1 (+12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (+18.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCLA -17.2 (+17.8) | 143.4 (+17.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCLA -20.2 (+14.8) | 147.5 (+13.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCLA -21.5 (+13.5) | 144.5 (+16.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCLA -20.8 (+14.2) | 144.8 (+16.2) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCLA | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 0-4 |
| Massey | 11.4 (#17) | -0.7 (#195) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#35) | -1.37 (#306) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.50 (#38) | -1.73 (#301) |
| RPI | 0.931 (#7) | 0.482 (#217) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCLA | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.5% | 38.5% |
| 3PT% | 40.2% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 27.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 0.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.6% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 26.1% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 21.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 77.9% | 58.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.2% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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