Betting Lines
| Spread | OSU -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OSU +31 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | OSU -9.4 (+21.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (+4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OSU -7.9 (+23.1) | 143.3 (+3.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OSU -10.9 (+20.1) | 143.4 (+3.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OSU -10.8 (+20.2) | 144.6 (+2.4) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OSU | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 6-14 |
| Home | 13-3 | 9-7 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 77.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 82.2 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#206) | -0.2 (#179) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.73 (#92) | -0.74 (#269) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#120) | -1.13 (#274) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#136) | 0.250 (#266) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OSU | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 33.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 14.7% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 48.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 0.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 37.2% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 65.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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