Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Over |
| Money | VAN -320 TXST +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +19 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | VAN -5.1 (+13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.4 (-10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -5.1 (+13.9) | 147.2 (-8.2) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -7.7 (+11.3) | 146.0 (-7.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -4.5 (+14.5) | 141.8 (-2.8) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-17 | 21-8 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 12-3 |
| Home | 11-8 | 12-1 |
| Away | 5-8 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 65.3 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#128) | 7.3 (#49) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#158) | 1.10 (#58) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#167) | 1.49 (#59) |
| RPI | 0.250 (#266) | 0.487 (#201) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 26.5 |
| OREB / G | 17.0 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 43.6% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 39.1% | 16.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.8% | 57.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 30.7% | 25.7% |
| DRB% | 77.8% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 30.9% |
Game Analysis
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