Betting Lines
| Spread | MINN -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PRIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MINN +7 | 167 | Lost |
| Massey | PRIN -4.2 (-11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.9 (+33.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PRIN -1.2 (-8.2) | 137.2 (+29.8) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MINN -0.5 (-6.5) | 133.9 (+33.1) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MINN -2.5 (-4.5) | 131.7 (+35.3) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PRIN | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-7 | 13-17 |
| Conference | 12-2 | 4-16 |
| Home | 13-1 | 8-7 |
| Away | 8-4 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 67.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 69.2 |
| Massey | 3.2 (#99) | -1.0 (#195) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.76 (#28) | 0.99 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.53 (#30) | 1.13 (#83) |
| RPI | 0.812 (#24) | 0.562 (#109) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PRIN | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 26.7% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 20.6% |
| FT Rate | 31.9% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.1% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 58.7% | 85.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.6% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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