Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Under |
| Money | MD -1600 GW +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +7 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | MD -17.7 (-10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.9 (-11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -11.7 (-4.7) | 147.4 (-12.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -13.7 (-6.7) | 147.7 (-12.7) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | GW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 12-18 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 8-9 |
| Home | 10-8 | 8-5 |
| Away | 3-7 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 72.8 |
| Massey | -0.0 (#122) | -3.7 (#195) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#63) | 0.34 (#46) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#72) | 0.35 (#115) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | GW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 45.0 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 29.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 38.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 86.5% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 41.0% |
Game Analysis
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