Betting Lines
| Spread | UAB -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | UAB -213 UVU +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAB +2 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | UAB -1.7 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.4 (+22.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAB -1.9 (+0.1) | 150.6 (+23.4) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAB -2.4 (-0.4) | 151.9 (+22.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAB -1.9 (+0.1) | 150.0 (+24.0) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UAB -2.3 (-0.3) | 149.3 (+24.7) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAB | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-10 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 15-3 |
| Home | 17-2 | 14-1 |
| Away | 7-5 | 12-5 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.0 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 10.6 (#44) | 8.9 (#62) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.04 (#33) | 1.80 (#43) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.47 (#34) | 2.30 (#43) |
| RPI | 0.573 (#48) | 0.584 (#36) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAB | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 36.1% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 44.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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