Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 115.5 Under |
| Money | UNT -125 WIS +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +2 | 110 | Won |
| Massey | UNT -1.6 (+0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 108.9 (+1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -1.9 (+0.1) | 120.4 (-10.4) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -1.7 (+0.3) | 117.1 (-7.1) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -2.4 (-0.4) | 121.7 (-11.7) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -1.8 (+0.2) | 122.7 (-12.7) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-7 | 20-15 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 9-11 |
| Home | 14-2 | 11-6 |
| Away | 10-3 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.5 | 65.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 56.3 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 10.2 (#48) | 8.6 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.35 (#21) | 1.70 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.59 (#29) | 2.20 (#50) |
| RPI | 0.603 (#20) | 0.557 (#68) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 13.2% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 17.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.7% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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