Betting Lines
| Spread | UVU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | UVU -150 CIN +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVU +6 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | UVU -2.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.5 (-4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVU -3.0 (+3.0) | 150.3 (-8.3) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVU -1.1 (+4.9) | 150.1 (-8.1) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVU -2.3 (+3.7) | 149.8 (-7.8) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVU -2.3 (+3.7) | 150.6 (-8.6) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVU | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-1 | 16-3 |
| Away | 12-5 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 8.8 (#63) | 10.3 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.74 (#45) | 1.34 (#66) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.24 (#45) | 1.71 (#69) |
| RPI | 0.579 (#42) | 0.549 (#78) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVU | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.2% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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